The residential market bottomed out this month and is expected to remain steady in the second half, with no clear catalysts for either a rebound or further deterioration, according to developers.

Uthai Uthaisangsuk, president of SET-listed developer Sansiri, said the market is unlikely to improve in the second half compared with the first and second quarters.

"The property sector is closely tied to economic growth. In the first half, GDP grew nearly 3%," he said.

However, many analysts have started to forecast slower growth due to headwinds such as the US tariff hike, which has affected exports, and a slight slowdown in tourism, though the latter typically enters its high season in the second half.

Given the negative news, particularly the US tariff hike and the slowdown in tourism, many expect GDP growth in the second half to fall below 2%, possibly to the low 1% range.

This would drag full-year GDP growth down to around 2%, he said.

By sector, condos performed well in the first half, particularly in locations where foreign demand is strong.

In Pattaya, Sansiri sold out a new project launched in the first quarter, with half of the units purchased by foreign buyers.

In addition, the central bank's rate cuts and the new 20-baht flat fare for mass transit are expected to stimulate demand, particularly for suburban condos, in the fourth quarter.

Single detached houses have recorded stagnant demand since the fourth quarter of last year, continuing into the first half of 2025. Demand is expected to remain flat in the second half, said Mr Uthai.

"The negative factors have already left their mark on the market and will continue to do so, including political instability, the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, the US tariff hike and the decline in foreign tourist arrivals," he said.

"These factors have already been priced in for the third and fourth quarters."

Sansiri maintains its full-year projections at 46 billion baht for both presales and transfers, despite the challenging environment, as these headwinds have already been factored into its outlook.

Supaluck Chanpitak, chief executive of low-rise housing developer Britania, said while lower interest rates present an opportunity, the low-rise housing market in the second half is expected to recover only gradually.

"The purchasing power for low-rise homes has yet to show clear signs of recovery," she said.

"Lower interest rates will help facilitate mortgage approvals and transfers, but sales are likely to remain flat. Nevertheless, the situation is unlikely to worsen further."

Peerapong Jaroon-ek, chief executive of SET-listed Origin Property, said on the macro level, several uncertainties have eased, including finalising the US tariff rate at 19%, which is seen as a competitive rate that could attract more foreign direct investment from countries facing higher tariffs.

"In the first half of the year, the market began to stabilise following the March earthquake and the uncertainty surrounding the US tariff hike. Meanwhile, the government has introduced new measures to stimulate the property sector, supporting signs that the Thai economy is bottoming out," said Mr Peerapong.