Despite cuts in transfer and mortgage fees, as well as relaxed loan-to-value limits, Bangkok's condo market is expected to continue its decline from last year, driven by the ongoing economic slowdown and weak foreign demand.

Phattarachai Taweewong, director of the research department at property consultancy Colliers Thailand, said while the government's stimulus measures and more accommodative monetary policy have helped stimulate some demand, the overall impact remains limited.

"However, affordability constraints and tight credit conditions remain key challenges," he said. "Even though banks are liquid and continue to support developer financing, stricter loan approvals and high household debt have limited buyers' access to credit."

In the first quarter of 2025, newly launched condo supply in Bangkok tallied 6,306 units across 14 projects, with a combined value of 19.8 billion baht. This marked a 72% increase from the same period last year, but a 35.1% decline from the fourth quarter of 2024.

The mass market segment -- condos priced below 100,000 baht per square metre -- dominated the new launches, accounting for 60.5% of the total, while luxury units priced above 200,000 baht per sq m made up only 3.1%.

During this period, 4,045 units were sold, reflecting a take-up rate of 64.2%, down 2.5% year-on-year, as demand remained subdued.

Many buyers delayed purchases to wait for the transfer fee reduction, though a gradual recovery is expected in the second quarter.

Colliers forecasts that new condo launches in 2025 will reach around 25,000 units, up 14.2% from 2024. However, due to the ongoing economic slowdown, the take-up rate is projected to decline by 3-5% year-on-year.

"Medium-term recovery depends on structural reforms, particularly lowering household debt and easing lending criteria," said Mr Phattarachai. "Without these, mortgage access will remain limited, increasing the risk of a widened supply-demand gap."

Besides sluggish domestic demand, overseas investors are also expected to scale back property purchases -- not only due to the global economic downturn, but also because of waning confidence among foreign buyers.

According to Kasikorn Research Center, 2025 will mark the first year in three years that foreign transfers of condos are projected to decline, with a 2.6% drop from the previous year. This was revised down from an earlier forecast of a 1.2% decrease.

A key factor is declining confidence due to recent events, including concerns over safety among Chinese buyers and the recent earthquake, which may negatively impact perceptions of high-rise condos, the centre reported.

In the first quarter, condo transfers by foreign buyers fell 0.5% year-on-year to 3,919 units.

During the same period, purchases by Chinese buyers, the largest group of overseas condo buyers, posted a 7% year-on-year decline to 1,481 units. In contrast, transfers to purchasers from Myanmar, the second-largest group, rose 12% to 439 units.