Chief executive Prateep Tangmatitham (left) and Tritecha Tangmatitham, managing director of Supalai Plc. (right)

The "Trump effect" has had a far greater impact on housing demand than the recent earthquake, which only caused temporary delays in purchases and transfers, whereas the former led to buyers stopping purchases altogether, according to SET-listed developer Supalai.

Tritecha Tangmatitham, managing director of Supalai, said the US tariff hike caused export-related business owners to cancel home transfers, with some even forfeiting their down payments without hesitation.

"US President Donald Trump's reciprocal trade tariffs were more alarming than the earthquake," he said. "Affected business owners walked away from reservations and declined to transfer ownership, despite forfeiting their booking deposits."

Following the March 28 earthquake, around 50% of customers initially called to cancel transfers, but ultimately fewer than 10 buyers actually did so, noted Supalai.

In contrast, those affected by the Trump tariffs cancelled outright, with no room for negotiation, said Mr Tritecha.

"The earthquake only prompted temporary delays, particularly among condo buyers in high-rise buildings. Current purchasing power has returned to 70% of normal levels and is expected to fully recover by next year," he said.

Mr Tritecha said the Trump effect will depress the Greater Bangkok residential market in 2025 to its lowest level in 15 years, with only 60,000-70,000 new units launched, the lowest since 2010. The peak was 130,000 units in 2013.

"The market will likely never return to its peak, but it may recover to 90,000-110,000 new units per year once sentiment and consumer spending improve," he said.

Mr Tritecha said the fourth quarter of 2024 was the worst on record, then the first quarter of 2025 was even worse, with the residential sector gross margin at only 28% -- the lowest ever.

"Normally margins never fall below 30%, and the peak was around 35%," he said.

The residential market remains flat this year, dashing hopes of a rebound driven by the easing of loan-to-value limits and declining interest rates, said Mr Tritecha.

Despite the slowdown, Supalai's targets for new launches, presales and revenue remain unchanged: 36 new projects worth a combined 41 billion baht, presales of 32 billion baht, and revenue of 30 billion in 2025.

"There are still some positive factors, including cheaper steel costs and a 10-15% drop in land prices, which helps reduce development costs," he said.