Chinese tourists pay respect and pray at the Erawan Shrine at the Ratchaprasong intersection. Declining Chinese visitors and the recent earthquake are likely to affect Chinese condo purchases this year. Nutthawat Wichieanbut

Condo transfers from Chinese buyers in Thailand are expected to remain at less than 40% of foreign transfers for the second consecutive year, as tourism from the nation softens and the recent earthquake dents confidence, according to Krungthai Compass, the research centre under Krungthai Bank.

In 2024, condo transfers for Chinese buyers accounted for 39% of total international transfers, marking the first time in five years the figure dropped below 40%. The share of condo transfers from Chinese buyers was 61% in 2020, then fell to 58% in 2021 and 49% in 2022.

Patcharaphot Nuntramas, chief economist at Krungthai Compass, said the decline in condo transfers by Chinese buyers aligns with a reduction in visitors from that country. The tourism decrease is attributed to increased competition from other countries, particularly Japan, Vietnam and South Korea.

"The recent earthquake in Thailand will also likely dampen condo transfers and purchases by Chinese buyers this year," he said.

"We expect condo transfers by Chinese buyers to tally less than 40% for the second consecutive year."

The Myanmar earthquake also affected some areas of China, and Krungthai Compass predicts the disaster to reduce demand and purchasing power among Chinese condo buyers, though the impact is expected to be short-term.

The research house said total condo transfers by foreign buyers in Thailand last year totalled 68,183 units, a 6.8% year-on-year decrease, following consistent growth since 2020.

Condo transfers peaked in 2023 at 73,161 units, up 23.5% year-on-year.

The highest growth rate was recorded in 2022, with a 49.2% increase based on 59,261 units.

Chinese buyers remain the leading group for condo transfers to foreigners in Thailand, followed by buyers from Myanmar, Russia, Taiwan, and the US.

While Chinese buyers have slowed their condo purchases, buyers from Myanmar have picked up the pace.

In 2024, condo transfers by Myanmar buyers accounted for 10% of foreign purchases, double the proportion the previous year.

The ongoing war in Myanmar prompted many wealthy individuals from the country to relocate to Thailand and invest in real estate, said Mr Patcharaphot.

The average price per condo unit for Myanmar purchasers is higher than the average for foreign buyers. In 2024, the average price per unit for foreign condo buyers was 4.7 million baht, compared with 5.2 million baht for buyers from Myanmar, noted the research house.

The average condo price for Chinese buyers was 4.6 million baht, while Indian buyers had the highest average price among foreigners at 6.3 million baht per unit, according to Krungthai Compass.