Transfers of high-rise condominiums in Greater Bangkok are expected to decline by 50%, while total condo transfers in the region may dip by 0.8% from 2024 in the aftermath of last week's earthquake, according to research and securities firms.

Kasikorn Securities analysed the impact of last Friday’s earthquake on the residential market in Greater Bangkok, with its base case expecting the value of ownership transfers for high-rise condo projects to drop by 50% in 2025 compared to 2024.

The securities firm forecasts the net profit of residential developers will decrease by 15% this year compared with current estimates. It expects listed developers, including L.P.N. Development, Origin Property and Pruksa Holding, to be significantly affected.

In the worst-case scenario, no condo ownership transfers are expected for high-rise projects, with net profit for residential developers potentially falling by as much as 31% compared with the 2025 profit forecast.

The March 28 earthquake, which was unprecedented in its severity, has led the firm to expect ongoing uncertainty in the residential sector following the event.

In the short term, the market is expected to remain highly uncertain. Condo residents are expected to adopt a cautious approach to using their properties for a while, which could negatively impact condo sales in the near future and affect the upcoming backlog.

Developers focused on condos will be affected, especially Ananda Development and Origin, which have the largest share of ready-to-move-in units and condo backlogs. In particular, Origin is expected to face the most significant short-term impact.

In the medium term, a period of transition is expected, with no further earthquakes anticipated. As a result, condo demand is likely to recover once owners are reassured by industry experts.

Additionally, property developers that deliver world-class construction standards are expected to achieve higher returns and profits.

However, if another earthquake were to occur, the true impact could be severe. Revenue trends may fall short of expectations, and market confidence in funding sources could gradually decline.

Debt repayment schedules would tighten, and liquidity and cash flow would become critically important, according to Kasikorn Securities.

B30-billion impact

Meanwhile, SCB Economic Intelligence Center (EIC) estimated on April 1 an initial impact on the Thai economy of around 30 billion baht, concentrated in the tourism, real estate and construction sectors.

The condo market was directly impacted by the earthquake. While no buildings collapsed, its recovery will depend on the restoration of consumer confidence.

SCB EIC expects condo transfers in Greater Bangkok to total 85,000 units in 2025, a 0.8% decline from 2024, revising down its previous forecast of 2.6% growth.

People planning to transfer condo ownership or purchase a unit are likely to delay their decisions, seeking assurance on safety and repairs, including architectural damage to units, common areas and buildings, before proceeding, noted the research house.

Condo investors are likely to delay investments due to uncertainties such as resale prices.

Concerned tenants may also relocate to low-rise housing, despite higher rents in similar locations, or opt for more affordable low-rise rentals in suburban areas.

The slowdown in condo transfers and purchase decisions will keep unsold condo inventory in Greater Bangkok high at around 74,000 units in 2025.

In addition, weak purchasing power among middle to low-income buyers and limited access to home loans will continue to restrain new condo launches throughout the year.

Developers may delay new project launches and intensify marketing efforts by highlighting safety features, such as the reliability of contractors, disaster preparedness measures and prompt resident support services.

The low-rise housing market is expected to benefit from those concerned about condo living safety and financially capable of relocating or acquiring additional low-rise homes, according to SCB EIC.