Severe damaged in front of lifts on the ninth floor in one of the two buildings in the red zone category in Bangkok. The building was severely damaged during the shocks experienced in the Thai capital.

Cracks and damage found in many high-rise condos in Bangkok after Friday's earthquake have rattled consumer confidence, likely making this year's second quarter the weakest quarter for condo sales and transfers in 15 years.

Phattarachai Taweewong, research and communications director at property consultancy Colliers Thailand, said both walk-in customer numbers and new condo sales in Greater Bangkok, particularly for high-rise units, are expected to shrink significantly in the second quarter.

"The earthquake has severely impacted condo buyers' confidence, which will take at least three months to recover," he said. "Buyers who purchased earlier and are scheduled for transfer will likely delay to assess the situation and ensure the safety of high-rise condos."

According to the Thai Condominium Association, new condo sales in the third quarter of 2024 hit their lowest level in 14 years, dating back to the second quarter of 2010, totalling 19 billion baht.

New sales in the second quarter of 2025 are likely to set a new low due to the lack of consumer confidence in condo purchases.

Meanwhile, new condo supply in Greater Bangkok scheduled for transfer in the second quarter of 2025 will total 31.4 billion baht, following 33 billion baht in the first quarter.

However, the peak was in the fourth quarter of 2024, with 85.9 billion baht, bringing the total for 2024 to 178.4 billion baht. These figures included both the sales backlog set for transfer to buyers and unsold inventory.

This unsold inventory will further add to the existing supply, which totalled 458.4 billion baht, Mr Phattarachai added.

The March 28 earthquake is expected to create a windfall for low-rise houses, which are perceived as less vulnerable to seismic events. This trend will mirror the shift seen in 2011 when nationwide flooding led homebuyers to favour condos over low-rise houses.

Surachet Kongcheep, head of research & consultancy at property consultancy Cushman & Wakefield Thailand, said low-rise house sales and transfers will either remain unaffected or see an increase compared to condos.

"New condo sales will undoubtedly decline, and developers are unlikely to accelerate sales closures or introduce new projects during this period. Instead, they will likely preserve their marketing budgets for a more favourable time and delay new project launches," he said.

Mr Surachet said condo developers need to focus on rebuilding confidence by ensuring residents feel secure about the safety of their buildings as a top priority.

A comprehensive inspection by qualified experts, followed by a clear certification from relevant authorities or a special government-appointed agency, is essential.

"This approach is expected to restore trust more quickly," he said. "It's not sufficient for the developers to merely send their engineers to inspect the building and confirm its safety or rush to repair the damage without knowing if the repairs are in line with engineering standards."

Mr Surachet said he expected condo buyers who are waiting for transfers during this period or within this year to likely reconsider, with more than 50% possibly requesting cancellations.

The extent of the cancellations will depend on which developers have more visible damage and which ones are able to quickly restore confidence and take responsibility for repairing the buildings.